Figure 4

ROC curve for predicting disease status using an IGE model. Data from simulation of the SIR model with variation in susceptibility and infectivity; curves in green = the probability function with lambda estimated as in equation (15) used as classification criterion (AUC = 0.964); brown (overlapping with green curve) = the probability function with lambda estimated using the Taylor expansion from equation (25) used as classification criterion (AUC = 0.964); purple = an IGE model (equation (26)) used as classification criterion (AUC = 0.751); black = random classification; grey = perfect classification.