Fig. 2

Sire modeling scenarios for controlled mating. In simulation Set I, either single sire mating (all drones mating with a queen are produced by a single drone-producing queen, DPQ) or pseudo sire mating (all drones mating with a queen are produced by a group of three sister-DPQs) was used. The dam of DPQ(s) was always correctly assigned. Regardless of the true (simulated) mating strategy adopted, four hypothetical scenarios were used to derive the sire pedigree, and to simulate different ways of handling uncertainty in the true mating strategy. First, in the ‘single sire in the pedigree’ modeling, individual DPQs were assigned exactly as they were used for mating when single sire mating was the controlled mating strategy in the simulation; alternatively, one of the three sister DPQs making up the pseudo sire was randomly assigned in the pedigree when pseudo sire mating was used for the simulation. Second, under the ‘dummy single sire in the pedigree per dam of DPQ’ scenario, a unique dummy DPQ was assigned to all queens that mated with drones from the same dam of DPQs. Third, under the ‘dummy single sire in the pedigree per mating’ scenario, one dummy DPQ was assigned to the pedigree for each mating. Lastly, in the ‘pseudo sire in the pedigree’ model, a pseudo sire made of three sister DPQs was assigned to the pedigree